I have often mentioned that the fourth quarter should be similar to the second, although the disaster should be less dramatic. This is evident from economic data, which suggests the current restrictions hit the euro-area economy. However, the damage is far less than it was during the previous lockdown. People continue going to work, manufacturing operates, and the government restricts entertainment and retail trading. The so-called ‘fun isolation’ suggests that vaccines' introduction will allow the euro-area economy to recover soon. This fact lets me hope that the EURUSD correction won’t be deep. Of course, the ECB would like the euro to cost as little as possible, which will support exports and accelerate inflation. In her recent speech, Christine Lagarde highlighted the effectiveness of the Pandemic Emergence Purchase Program (PEPP) and anti-crisis long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). This was a clear signal that both of them will be expanded in December. On the other hand, the ECB president did not say anything about interest-rate changes. It is quite possible that by increasing the scale of QE, the ECB will cause the same reaction in EURUSD as the Bank of England did by its similar actions. Remember, the pound rose in response to the BoE monetary easing in November.
Dynamics and structure of ECB assets
https://preview.redd.it/g309gkp0cty51.jpg?width=576&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a7f25d34d6feb075e8e00e412ac7f07fe94005c9 Source: Bloomberg But still, the primary growth driver for the EURUSD is not the liquidity trap suggesting lower efficiency of the stimulating measures as their volumes increase and inadequate response of the regional currency. That is the rally of the US stock indexes, which supports the euro. Yes, the S&P 500 growth on November 9 unexpectedly supported the dollar. But this situation resulted from the realization of the investment idea of Biden’s victory in the US presidential election. The correlation between the US stock market and the EURUSD should soon restore, which could encourage the euro bulls to go ahead. The record stimuli as the response to the recession have poured a huge amount of money into the financial system. Ahead of the elections, investors preferred to hold cash because of uncertainty. Now, that money goes back into the market. Amid positive news about vaccines, the S&P 500 rallies thanks to traditional industries, including industry and banking. As soon as there are talks about a long vaccine introduction process, the stock market is still rising. This time thanks to the tech stocks.
The current situation looks like that of the second quarter when the US and the euro-area economies slid down into recession, and the S&P 500 was growing. Investors expected the recession to end soon, and the GDP recovery to be V-shaped. The same is now. It will take a long time to introduce the COVID-19 vaccine after it has been approved. However, the stock indexes are rallying up, suggesting purchases of the EURUSD if the price closes above 1.18 and 1.1845. Otherwise, the US stock market correction will send the euro down to $1.172 and $1.167. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/euro-and-fun-isolation-forecast-as-of-12112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
Yen places its opponent in check. Analysis as of 04.11.2020
Monthly fundamental forecast for yen
While the greenback is waiting for the election's final results, trading currency cross rates may be worth considering. The US political landscape will undoubtedly affect most currencies, but the pandemic remains a weightier factor in Forex pricing in the medium and long terms. The strategies based on the divergence in epidemiological situations, economic growth, and monetary policies continue to yield profits. Another confirmation is the realization of the targets at 122.9 and 121.8 set in mid-October for shorts in the EURJPY. COVID-19 hit Japan less than the eurozone: in terms of Coronavirus cases per 100,000, Japan is one of the countries that tackle the pandemic most efficiently, along with China, Taiwan, and South Korea. The situation in Belgium, Spain, and Italy looks gloomy, on the contrary.
Recession and pandemic
Source: Financial Times. As a result, Europe is forced to introduce new restrictions, which will cut the eurozone's Q4 GDP by 2.3%, according to Financial Times. Thus, a double recession is certainly in the air. The organization of economic development and cooperation expects that the currency block's economy will reduce 7.9% in 2020, i.e., twice as much as during the previous global crisis. I dare suppose that the second wave may even downgrade those forecasts. The BoJ expects that the Japanese GDP will fall by 5.5% by the end of the 2020/2021 fiscal year in March. Japan's economic loss doesn't look as significant as the eurozone's since the efficiency of anti-pandemic measures in Asia is higher than in Europe.
Source: Financial Times. Christine Lagarde is sure the ECB will expand a monetary stimulus package in December as the coronavirus is spreading fast across Europe. Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues are ready to take action if necessary, but the BoJ's Head has not seen such a necessity so far. Both regulators got caught in a liquidity trap where softer monetary policies do not have any positive effect. Both agree to play currency wars, but the ECB's intentions are manifest, and the euro is therefore falling faster than other G10 currencies.
The situation may seriously change soon: vaccines' development will support the global economic recovery and international trade, which is positive news for the euro. The European countries will lift restrictions, and Christine Lagarde's hints about QE expansion will remain mere hints. According to Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, there is no point in increasing buy volumes as the inflation won't speed up anyway. Instead, a change in the QE program's structure must be in focus. This scenario looks too optimistic, though. But why not hope for the best and use the EURJPY's drawdown to 120.65 for long-term buying? For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/yen-places-its-opponent-in-check-analysis-as-of-04112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
However efficient the anti-Covid summer measures may be, the pandemic is returning to Europe, making the currency bloc’s countries impose new restrictions and compromising Q4 GDP growth. How will that affect the EURUSD? Let’s find it out and make a trading plan.
Weekly fundamental forecast for euro
Which is worse: to be always on a losing streak or to have glimpses of hope between losing streaks? EURUSD may help answer that question. The second wave of COVID-19 is spreading across Europe so fast that the eurozone’s double recession is being discussed in the market. Not only will that increase the risk of the EURUSD’s further correction, but it also suggests an eventual turn to downtrend. What’s more, neither China nor Brexit haven’t lived up to the euro fans’ expectations so far. China’s GDP grew by 4.9% in quarter 3. That’s better than the Q2 value (+3.2%) and worse than the Bloomberg experts’ consensus forecast of 5.3%. Export-oriented China is in trouble as foreign demand is weak. It can’t assume responsibility for the global economy’s fate. Next, the risk of double recession is growing due to another round of restrictions in Germany, France, Spain, Italy amid the severe worsening of the epidemiological situation. That’s the main factor in EURUSD’s collapse.
https://preview.redd.it/wmnp6obpp1u51.jpg?width=598&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b783d0349491d93c5907b5491b3cd61a4cf2d701 Source: Nordea Markets. According to Societe Generale, any central bank that can soften monetary policy will do that, especially in the regions with high infection rates and restrictions on movement. Christine Lagarde says the second wave compromises the most the service sector, which accounts for 75% of the eurozone’s GDP. While Europe is facing the risk of QE expansion, the US forward markets presume that Joe Biden’s victory, fiscal stimulus extension, and inflation acceleration will make the Fed raise borrowing costs before 2024. Thus, the divergence in economic growth and monetary policies starts showing favor to the USD, and that’s not the euro’s only problem. The market still believes that the Brexit issue will be solved at the last moment, just like it happened many times before. However, the clock is ticking, and they still can’t get the things rolling. They say more often that the pound can collapse 10% and draw the euro to the bottom in an unfavorable scenario. Hopes for a bright future did good for the eurozone’s currency in summer, but they may eventually turn out to be harmful. Germany and the currency bloc plan to cut the budget deficit from 6.25% to 4.25% and from 8.9% to 6% of GDP in 2021. I hope the inopportune phaseout of monetary stimulus won’t stir up a debt crisis in Europe like in 2010-2012.
USD shorts are now the most popular Forex trading strategy
The market is driven by emotions. If the EUUSD bulls are taken by the euphoria, no negative economic data will hold them back! The U.S. industrial production data have exceeded the forecasts, the U.S. retail sales are back at the pre-crisis levels. In the euro-area, however, the euro-area employment has dropped the most on record since the series begun in 1995. But the euro buyers are going ahead. Investors are confident that the euro-area economy will recover, and the U.S. growth will face a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. BofA Merrill Lynch notes that 36% of asset managers surveyed by the bank said the U.S. dollar sell positions are their favourite trading strategy, the highest in the history of research. This strategy is much ahead of all the others, its proportion increased by 6% from 30% in July, and, most likely, it will continue to gain popularity. BofA Merrill Lynch names, among other reasons, the loss of the greenback's position as a reserve currency. In fact, the countries that are under pressure from the USA are active participants in the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of the US currency in the trade settlements between Russia and China has been for the first time below 50%. In 2015, for example, the dollar’s share in the Russia-China trade settlements was more than 90%.
Dynamics of USD share in China-Russia trade settlements
Source: Wall Street Journal Washington tries to affect Moscow using sanctions, but it uses much more sophisticated measures concerning Beijing. President Donald Trump ordered ByteDance to divest the U.S. operations of its app TikTok as the social media will cease to work in the USA in 90 days. A U.S. reprieve that had allowed some US companies to work with Huawei without a license now expires. The USA warns that the sanctions will target other China’s corporations, including Alibaba. The US-China relations are getting tense, the parties even delayed the meeting planned for August 15 to assess the fulfilment of obligations under the trade agreement signed in January. The EUUSD bulls, however, are not concerned about the trade conflict escalation. They expect that amid such a scenario the euro’s share in the global FX reserves will increase. According to 40% of asset managers polled by BofA Merrill Lynch, this process will start already in 2021. Forex seems to be taken away by euphoria. Hedge funds’ dollar longs versus the world eight major currencies have been in the red for the first time since May 2018. The main reason is said to be speculators’ growing interest in the euro.
Dynamics of speculative dollar positions and Treasury real yields
Source: Bloomberg Of course, bulls’ enthusiasm used to quickly result in the capitulation in the past. However, under the current conditions, I mean the difficult epidemiological situation in the USA, Fed’s grim projections, and the upcoming presidential election in November, the US stock indexes are growing, and the EUUSD can well grow as well. Amid the current situation, it is important to check buyers’ willingness to continue the rally anyway. If the resistance at 1.188 is broken out, the pair can well continue rising. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-out-of-fashion/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
Which bubble is bigger? The stock or the Forex market?
Market bubbles suggest rapidly rising prices, which attract the buyer hoping to earn quick money. Such buyers do not express due diligence or worry about the long-term prospects of what they buy. They ignore standard gauges as irrelevant, and the bubble goes bigger through cheap money. It looks familiar, doesn’t it? The rallies of the US stock indexes and the EUUSD more and more look like a bubble. The bulls, however, do not let it burst. It took S&P500 just 126 trading days to go back to February highs and hit a new record high. It is the fastest stocks rally after the bear market, which, by the way, had lasted for 33 days, with an average value of 302 of the previous 22 downtrends since the 1920s. Besides, the P/E of the stocks included in the index is 22.6. It is the highest value since the dot-com crisis. But the standard gauges are ignored in bubbles, aren’t they? The market is far from reality. The US economic state is hardly the same as it was in February. The S&P500 rally has, for a long time, supported the EUUSD bulls, but, now, they have different drivers. The stock indexes are growing amid the Fed’s support, which the euro is strengthening because of the GDP growth gap between the euro-area and the US. Remarkably, the volatility of the equity market and the Forex are now diverging. The US stocks are growing because of the cheap liquidity; the currency market is currently pricing the risks of the possibilities of the COVID-19 second wave in the euro area, the presidential election in the US, and the escalation of trade wars. Source: Bloomberg The EUUSD rally may also look like a bubble. The net longs on the euro held by the asset managers are the highest ever. The euro-area economy was hit by the pandemic stronger than the US, and the yields on the European securities is still low. After all, everything is relative. While Steven Mnuchin claims that the negotiations between the Democrats and the republicans are stalled, the EU governments are quick to implement mitigation measures. The spread between US and German real yields is as narrow as it was in 2014 last time. The appeal of the US securities is falling, and that of the euro-area assets is growing. Isn’t it a reason to buy the euro?
Dynamics of the spread between US and German real yields
Source: Bloomberg According to Scotiabank, speculative dollar shorts are not excessive; they haven’t reached the level of 2017. The market has just started shorting on the greenback, so there is room to open more shorts. Société Générale notes, the US dollar’s rate, in real terms, is still 25% higher than the levels of 2011, and the Fed is still willing to depreciate the dollar. Is the EUUSD a bubble? I do not think so. My strategy is to hold the euro longs and add up on the price falls. While the price is above 1.183, bulls control the market. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-bulls-wont-let-euro-burst/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the LARGEST in the world, totaling 297 billion barrels. While ignoring (and even supporting) the atrocities of authoritarian regimes in places like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Uzbekistan, US oligarchs have targeted Venezuela for “regime-change” in the name of “democracy”. Currently, the US is engaging in economic warfare against Venezuela to foment a coup and remove its democratically elected president Nicolás Maduro. Without providing solid evidence, our corporate-controlled government and mainstream media portray Maduro as a corrupt, repressive, and illegitimate leader with little to no support.
Why is the US Corporatocracy so Keen to Remove Maduro?
While Venezuela’s economy is not a strictly-state-run economy, its oil industry is nationalized and uses its revenues for the benefit of its citizens (especially the poor). After years of crippling US sanctions Maduro stepped over a crucial line in October when his government announced that Venezuela was abandoning the US dollar and would be make all future transactions on the Venezuelan exchange market in euro. Saddam Hussein also went off the dollar in favor of the euro in 2003 – we started dropping bombs on him the next month. A similar decision by the Gadhafi government in Libya (2011) was quickly followed by a devastating US-orchestrated conflict - culminating in Gadhafi's capture by radical Islamists who sodomized him with a bayonet before killing him. Since then, Libya has gone from Africa's wealthiest country to a truly failed-state complete with a slave trade! To make matters worse, after the collapse of the Libyan government, its military arms were smuggled out of that country and into the hands of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria - enabling US-orchestrated chaos in those countries.
Who cares what currency a country uses to trade petroleum?
Answer: US oligarchy
The US dollar is central to US world economic domination. Like all other modern currencies, it is a fiat currency – backed by no real assets to prop up its value. In lieu of a “gold standard” we know operate on a de-facto “oil-standard”: "After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes. The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and, through this status, the United States enjoys persistent trade deficits and is a global economic hegemony." Investopedia “The central banking Ponzi scheme requires an ever-increasing base of demand and the immediate silencing of those who would threaten its existence. Perhaps that is what the hurry [was] in removing Gaddafi in particular and those who might have been sympathetic to his monetary idea.” Anthony Wile
US Foreign Policy is about Oligarchy Not Democracy
Since World War II, the US has attempted to over-throw the 52 foreign governments. Aside from a handful of exceptions (China, Cuba, Vietnam, etc.), the US has been successful in the vast majority of these attempts. US foreign policy is not about democracy – it is about exploiting the world’s resources in the interests of a small, ultra-wealthy global elite. This exploitation benefits a small percentage of people at the top of the economic pyramid while the costs are born by those at the bottom.
US CIA Coup Playbook:
How to Plunder Resources from Foreign Countries While Pretending to Support Democracy
Find a country with resources you want.
Send in an “Economic Hitman” to offer bribes the country’s leader in the form of personally lucrative business deals. If he accepts the deal, the leader will amass a personal fortune in exchange for "privatizing” the resources you wish to extract.
If the leader will not accept your bribes, begin the regime-change process. 3) Engage in economic warfare by imposing crippling sanctions on the country and blame the ensuing shortages on the leader’s “socialist” policies. 4) Work with right-wing allies inside country to fund and organize an “astroturf” opposition group behind a corporate-friendly puppet. 5) Hire thugs inside country to incite unrest and violence against the government in coordination with your opposition group. Use corporate media to publicize the orchestrated outbursts as popular outrage and paint a picture of a “failed state” mired in corruption and chaos. 6) When the government arrests your thugs, decry the response as the brutal repression. Use corporate-owned media to demonize the target government as a despotic regime while praising your puppet opposition as champions of democracy. 7) Work with right-wing military leaders to organize the overthrow the government (offer them the same business deals the current leader refused). 8) If a military-led coup cannot be organized, create a mercenary army to carry out acts of terrorism against the government and its supporters. Portray the mercenaries as “freedom fighters” and their acts of terrorism as a “civil war”. 9) If the target government has popular and military support and is too well-defended for your mercenaries to over-throw: label the country a “rouge state” and wait for the right time to invade. Meanwhile, continue to wear the country’s government and populace down using steps 3 – 8. 10) Escalate the terror campaign within the country to provoke a military response from the country against the US. If they won’t take the bait , fabricate an attack or threat that you can sell to the US population as justification for an invasion. 11) Once the government is removed, set up your puppet regime to provide the illusion of sovereignty. The regime will facilitate and legitimize your appropriation of the country’s resources under the guise of "free" trade. 12) As you continue to extract the country’s resources, provide intelligence and military support to the puppet regime to suppress popular dissent within the country. 13) Use the demise of the former government as yet another example of the impracticality of “socialism.” What Can I Do? Call your senators and representatives to voice your opposition to US regime-change efforts in Venezuela. https://www.commoncause.org/find-your-representative/ Please share this message with others. Sources included at: https://link.medium.com/8DiA5xzx4T
ALAN MACLEOD FEBRUARY 8, 2019 A recent Gallup poll (8/13/18) found that a majority of millennials view socialism favorably, preferring it to capitalism. Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the United States, while new leftist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (AOC) policies of higher taxes on the wealthy, free healthcare and public college tuition are highly popular—even among Republican voters (FAIR.org,1/23/19). Alarmed by the growing threat of progressive policies at home, the establishment has found a one-word weapon to deploy against the rising tide: Venezuela. The trick is to attack any political figure or movement even remotely on the left by claiming they wish to turn the country into a “socialist wasteland” (Fox News, 2/2/19) run by a corrupt dictatorship, leaving its people hungry and devastated. Leading the charge have been Fox News and other conservative outlets. One Fox opinion piece (1/25/19) claimed that Americans should be “absolutely disgusted” by the “fraud” of Bernie Sanders and Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, as they “continue to promote a system that is causing mass starvation and the collapse of a country,” warning that is exactly what their failed socialist policies would bring to the US. (Back in the real world, while Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez identify as socialists, Warren is a self-described capitalist, and Booker is noted for his ties to Wall Street, whose support for his presidential bid he has reportedly been soliciting.) A second Fox Newsarticle (1/27/19) continues in the same vein, warning that, “At the heart of Venezuela’s collapse is a laundry list of socialist policies that have decimated its economy.” TheWall Street Journal(1/28/19) describes calls for negotiations in Venezuela as “siding with the dictator.” In an article entitled “Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and the Starving Children of Venezuela,” the Washington Examiner (6/15/17) warned its readers to “beware the socialist utopia,” describing it as a dystopia where children go hungry thanks to socialism. The Wall Street Journal (1/28/19) recently condemned Sanders for his support of a “dictator,” despite the fact Bernie has strongly criticized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and dismissed Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, as a “dead Communist dictator” (Reuters, 6/1/16). More supposedly centrist publications have continued this line of attack. The New York Times’ Bret Stephens (1/25/19) argued: “Venezuela is a socialist catastrophe. In the age of AOC, the lesson must be learned again”—namely, that “socialism never works,” as “20 years of socialism” has led to “the ruin of a nation.” The Miami Herald(2/1/19) cast shame on Sanders and AOC for arguing for socialism in the face of such overwhelming evidence against it, describing the left’s refusal to back self-appointed president Juan Guaidó, someone whomless than 20 percentof Venezuelans had even heard of, let alone voted for, as “morally repugnant.” This useful weapon to be used against the left can only be sustained by withholding a great number of key facts—chief among them, the US role in Venezuela’s devastation. US sanctions, according to the Venezuelan opposition’s economics czar, are responsible for a halving of the country’s oil output (FAIR.org, 12/17/18). The UN Human Rights Council has formally condemned the US and discussed reparations to be paid, with one UN special rapporteur describing Trump’s sanctions as a possible “crime against humanity” (London Independent, 1/26/19). This has not been reported by any the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN or any other national US “resistance” news outlet, which have been only too quick to support Trump’s regime change plans (FAIR.org, 1/25/19). Likewise, the local US-backed opposition’s role in the economic crisis is barely mentioned. The opposition, which controls much of the country’s food supply, has officially accepted responsibility for conducting an “economic war” by withholding food and other key goods. For example, the monolithic Empresas Polar controls the majority of the flour production and distribution crucial for making arepa cornbread, Venezuela’s staple food. Polar’s chair is Leopoldo Lopez, national coordinator of Juan Guaidó’s Popular Will party, while its president is Lorenzo Mendoza, who considered running for president against Maduro in the 2018 elections that caused pandemonium in the media (FAIR.org, 5/23/18). Conspicuously, it’s the products that Polar has a near-monopoly in that are often in shortest supply. This is hardly a secret, but never mentioned in the copious stories (CNN, 5/14/14, Bloomberg, 3/16/17, Washington Post, 5/22/17, NPR, 4/7/17) focusing on bread lines in the country. Also rarely commented on was the fact that multiple international election observer missions declared the 2018 elections free and fair, and that Venezuelan government spending as a proportion of GDP (often considered a barometer of socialism) is actually lower than the US’s, and far lower than most of Europe’s, according to the conservative Heritage Foundation. The LondonDaily Express(2/3/19) demonstrates that redbaiting works equally well on either side of the Atlantic. Regardless of these bothersome facts, the media has continued to present Venezuela’s supposedly socialist dictatorship as solely responsible for its crisis as a warning to any progressives who get the wrong idea. So useful is this tool that it is being used to attack progressive movements around the world. The Daily Express (2/3/19) and Daily Mail (2/3/19) condemned UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn for his “defense” of a “dictator,” while the Daily Telegraph(2/3/19) warned that the catastrophe of Venezuela is Labour’s blueprint for Britain. Meanwhile, the Greek leftist party Syriza’s support for Maduro (the official position of three-quarters of UN member states) was condemned as “shameful” (London Independent, 1/29/19). “Venezuela” is also used as a one-word response to shut down debate and counter any progressive idea or thought. While the panel on ABC’s The View (7/23/18) discussed progressive legislation like Medicare for All and immigration reform, conservative regular Meghan McCain responding by invoking Venezuela: “They’re starving to death” she explained, leaving the other panelists bemused. President Trump has also used it. In response to criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren over his “Pocahontas” jibe, he replied that she would “make our country into Venezuela” (Reuters, 10/15/18). The weapon’s effectiveness can only be sustained through a media in lockstep with the government’s regime-change goals. That the media is fixated on the travails of a relatively small and unimportant country in America’s “backyard,” and that the picture of Venezuela is so shallow, is not a mistake. Rather, the simplistic narrative of a socialist dictatorship starving its own people provides great utility as a weapon for the establishment to beat back the domestic “threat” of socialism, by associating movements and figures such as Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jeremy Corbyn with an evil caricature they have carefully crafted.
Corporate Propaganda Blitz Against Venezuela’s Elected President: MSM Will Not Let Facts Interfere With Coup Agenda
Facts Don’t Interfere With Propaganda Blitz Against Venezuela’s Elected PresidentJoe Emersberger Guaidó, anointed by Trump and a new Iraq-style Coalition of the Willing, did not even run in Venezuela’s May 2018 presidential election. In fact, shortly before the election, Guaidó was not even mentioned by the opposition-aligned pollster Datanálisis when it published approval ratings of various prominent opposition leaders. Henri Falcón, who actually did run in the election (defying US threats against him) was claimed by the pollster to basically be in a statistical tie for most popular among them. It is remarkable to see the Western media dismiss this election as “fraudulent,” without even attempting to show that it was “stolen“ from Falcón. Perhaps that’s because it so clearly wasn’t stolen. Graph: Approval Ratings of Main Venezuelan Leaders Nov 2016 - July 2018 Data from the opposition-aligned pollsters in Venezuela (via Torino Capital) indicates that Henri Falcón was the most popular of the major opposition figures at the time of the May 2018 presidential election. Nicolás Maduro won the election due to widespread opposition boycotting and votes drawn by another opposition candidate, Javier Bertucci. The constitutional argument that Trump and his accomplices have used to “recognize” Guaidó rests on the preposterous claim that Maduro has “abandoned” the presidency by soundly beating Falcón in the election. Caracas-based journalist Lucas Koerner took apart that argument in more detail. What about the McClatchy-owned Miami Herald's claim that Maduro “continues to reject international aid”? In November 2018, following a public appeal by Maduro, the UN did authorize emergency aid for Venezuela. It was even reported by Reuters (11/26/18), whose headlines have often broadcast the news agency’s contempt for Maduro’s government. It’s not unusual for Western media to ignore facts they have themselves reported when a major “propaganda blitz” by Washington is underway against a government. For example, it was generally reported accurately in 1998 that UN weapons inspectors were withdrawn from Iraq ahead of air strikes ordered by Bill Clinton, not expelled by Iraq’s government. But by 2002, it became a staple of pro-war propaganda that Iraq had expelled weapons inspectors (Extra! Update, 10/02). And, incidentally, when a Venezuelan NGO requested aid from the UN-linked Global Fund in 2017, it was turned down. Setting aside how effective foreign aid is at all (the example of Haiti hardly makes a great case for it), it is supposed to be distributed based on relative need, not based on how badly the US government wants somebody overthrown. But the potential for “aid” to alleviate Venezuela’s crisis is negligible compared to the destructive impact of US economic sanctions. Near the end of the Miami Herald article, author Jim Wyss cited an estimate from the thoroughly demonized Venezuelan government that US sanctions have cost it $30 billion, with no time period specified for that estimate. Again, this calls to mind the run-up to the Iraq invasion, when completely factual statements that Iraq had no WMDs were attributed to the discredited Iraqi government. Quoting Iraqi denials supposedly balanced the lies spread in the media by US officials like John Bolton, who now leads the charge to overthrow Maduro. Wyss could have cited economists independent of the Maduro government on the impact of US sanctions—like US economist Mark Weisbrot, or the emphatically anti-Maduro Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguez. Illegal US sanctions were first imposed in 2015 under a fraudulent “state of emergency” declared by Obama, and subsequently extended by Trump. The revenue lost to Venezuela’s government due to US economic sanctions since August 2017, when the impact became very easy to quantify, is by nowwell over $6 billion. That’s enormous in an economy that was only able to import about $11 billion of goods in 2018, and needs about $2 billion per year in medicines. Trump’s “recognition” of Guaidó as “interim president” was the pretext for making the already devastating sanctions much worse. Last month, Francisco Rodríguez revised his projection for the change in Venezuela’s real GDP in 2019, from an 11 percent contraction to 26 percent, after the intensified sanctions were announced. The $20 million in US “aid” that Wyss is outraged Maduro won’t let in is a rounding error compared to the billions already lost from Trump’s sanctions. Former US Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield, who pressed for more sanctions on Venezuela, dispensed with the standard “humanitarian” cover that US officials have offered for them (Intercept, 2/10/19):
And if we can do something that will bring that end quicker, we probably should do it, but we should do it understanding that it’s going to have an impact on millions and millions of people who are already having great difficulty finding enough to eat, getting themselves cured when they get sick, or finding clothes to put on their children before they go off to school. We don’t get to do this and pretend as though it has no impact there. We have to make the hard decision—the desired outcome justifies this fairly severe punishment.
Thanks to all who gave me such wonderful appreciation and to the mods who gave me platinum, I don't deserve your praise, I just love our country. I want it to succeed. Now let's get riiiiiiiiigt into the neeeeeeewwws. -PM Khan makes it to Foreign Policy magazine's 2019 Global Thinkers list Prime Minister Imran Khan has been named among Foreign Policy magazine's 2019 list of 'Global Thinkers'. The short writeup on the premier states that Khan, "a former cricket star, finally got the job he had long coveted ─ prime minister"."His reward was an incredibly difficult to-do list, starting with Pakistan's looming fiscal and debt crises," it added. Prime Minister Khan shares the spotlight with other world leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former US president Barack Obama and his wife Michelle, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and US lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. -Atletico shoot for football future in Pakistan Spain´s Atletico Madrid are taking on a challenge tougher than winning La Liga — developing football in cricket-mad Pakistan, where bat and ball are king, pitches come with stumps not goalposts, and even the prime minister is a former World Cup winner. During a recent session at the club´s new facility in Lahore — the country´s first European football academy — a cabal of Spanish coaches watched as a new class of young Pakistani hopefuls fired off penalty kicks. -National Job Programme to be launched for providing jobs to youth The National Job Programme will be launched under the Prime Minister’s Youth Programme for providing job opportunities to the educated youth. In this connection Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Youth Affairs Muhammad Usman Dar held a meeting with Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit in Islamabad on Monday to explore avenues of collaboration for the development of an effective National Job Programme. The special assistant to the prime minister appreciated GIZ for its role in the development of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sector in Pakistan. He expressed hope to leverage their expertise in the field for creating better employment opportunities for the youth. The National Job Programme would include vocational training of youth in best Technical and Vocational Training Institutes and their placements in relevant industries to spur national economic growth. -You Can Even Sleep in This New Luxury Bus Service from Karachi to Quetta The 9-hour journey between Karachi and Quetta has now been made easier thanks to a newly launched luxury service. ‘Super International’ is aiming to make the experience of traveling on a bus as comfortable as possible. For that, apart from the usual amenities, it offers an onboard sleeping facility. Hence, the company’s slogan ‘Sleep Well, Live Well.” According to details, the bus will depart from Sadar area of Karachi on alternate days throughout the week. The ticket price is still to be confirmed but it will be around Rs. 3,000 per person. -KSE 100 picks 237 points on foreign inflow news The benchmark KSE 100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange surged by 237.27 points or (+0.60%) closed at 39,543 on Monday. Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the Market moved upwards on the back of positive news flow on financial support from friendly countries in Gulf, as well as anticipation of China’s support in the offing. Higher international crude prices helped E&P sector to perform better, with OGDC and PPL scoring 4M and 3.1M shares respectively. Besides, expectation of improvement in Core Delta for EPCL, helped stock reach new highs and last half hour’s trading pulled the price back above 41. -Federal government released Rs 233 billion under PSDP The federal government has released Rs233.4 billion against the total allocation of Rs675 billion under its Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2018-19 for various ongoing and new schemes. The released funds include Rs86.5 billion for federal ministries, Rs111 billion for corporations, and Rs25.6 billion for special areas, according to a data released by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform on Monday. Out of these allocations, the government released Rs101.46 billion for National Highway Authority out of total allocation of Rs185.2 billion, whereas Rs9.6 billion have been released for NTDC and PEPCO for which an amount of Rs33.36 billion was allocated under PSDP 2018-19. Similarly, Rs4.6 billion have been released for Communication Division (other than National Highway Authority) for which the government has earmarked Rs13.97 billion under PSDP 2018-19. Railways Division received Rs8.07 billion out of its total allocation of Rs28.06 billion whereas Aviation Division received Rs443.5 million out of total allocation of Rs3.65 billion. The government also released an amount of Rs11.8 billion for various development projects of Higher Education Commission out of total allocation of Rs30.9 billion. The government also released Rs2.2 billion for National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination Division, for which an amount of Rs10.9 billion have been allocated. An amount of Rs1.44 billion has been released for Finance Division out of its total allocations of Rs12.34 billion and Rs540.68 million have been released for Climate Change Division out of its total allocations of Rs802.7 million for the current year, Rs20.3 million for Human Rights Division, and Rs408.5 million for National Food Security and Research Division. -Discussions Continue on Economic Bailout Package for Pakistan: IMF International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan are continuing discussions for a bailout package. Fitch Solutions stated in its latest report that the latest round of Chinese largesse has given Islamabad the confidence to snub the IMF’s more stringent requirements for obtaining funds. However, should Pakistan experience acute signs of a currency crisis over the coming months, we would not be surprised to see talks between Pakistan and the IMF resume, it added. -PM Imran Khan holds important meeting with Qatari PM, followed by official dinner Prime Minister Imran Khan met Prime Minister of Qatar Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani at his residence in Doha on Monday. Bilateral relations, with a focus on economic cooperation between the two countries, were discussed during the meeting. The Qatari Prime Minister also hosted a dinner in the honour of Prime Minister and his delegation. -USD likely to trade in Rs138 and 139 range, positive news expected from Qatar: Malik Bostan President Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP), Malik Bostan Khan has said that at positive news is expected from the Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit of Qatar, adding that if Pakistan is able to get deferred payment facility on imported gas from Qatar, the country will sail out of economic crisis in three years. He said Pakistan’s delegation visiting Qatar would also discuss human resource and security exports to Qatar, which will give a boost to remittances. -Over 3.9 crore children under age of five to undergo polio immunization across Pakistan The first nationwide polio vaccination campaign of 2019 started across the country on Monday to immunize over 39 million children despite harsh cold weather with continuous rainfall and snowfall on hilly areas. According to an official of National Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), as many as 260,000 front line workers started going door to door across all provinces and towns to ensure more than 39 million children under the age of five receive two drops of the vaccine to protect them against the polio virus. -Pakistan sees increase in IT exports, government targets $7 billion The Information Technology (IT) and Telecommunication industry of the country has contributed US $ 540 million foreign exchange to national kitty through exports during first two quarters of this fiscal year 2018-2019. The telecommunication, computer and information services managed to export IT and IT-enabled services worth US $ 540 million, seeing an increase of US $ 20 million as compared to exports figures of same period last year, statistics of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) revealed. It is pertinent to mention here that Pakistan's IT industry achieved a benchmark of US $ 1.065 billion of exports in last financial year 2017-18. Federal Minister for Information Technology and Telecommunication Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui Monday said that IT sector would bring a change in the country in future, so it is need of the hour time to digitalize the country. Talking to the media persons during his visit to the Virtual University (VU) here, he said that Pakistan was earning one billion dollars per annum through software development and its volume could be increased up to seven billion dollars per annum in the next five years Similarly: IT exports fetch $540m in six months According to Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB), Pakistan’s IT & ITES-BPO industry comprises more than 2,500 companies, and this number is growing each year. The industry employs over 300,000 English-speaking professionals with many world-class experts in current and emerging IT products and technologies. -UNGA president acknowledges Pakistan's peace-keeping history President of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA), Ms Maria Fernanda Espinosa Monday acknowledged Pakistan’s meritorious contributions to the United Nation peacekeeping missions and termed it one of the largest countries to have contributed to bringing peace in areas marred by insecurity and unrest. Ms Fernanda stated this while interacting with faculty members and students of National University of Science and Technology (NUST) during her visit to the university. Ms Fernanda, accompanied by Ms Maleeha Lodhi, Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the UN, paid a visit to Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS) at NUST. Lt Gen Naweed Zaman, HI (M), (Retd), Rector NUST, along with NUST senior management and faculty received the esteemed guests upon arrival at the main campus. She also lauded NUST for providing peacekeeping training both to local and foreign troops. -More than 40 World Nations to participate in Pakistan Navy International Exercise Pakistan Navy will host AMAN 19 exercise in February this year under the slogan of 'Together for Peace'. According to Pakistan Navy , more than forty countries will participate in the exercise. It is aimed at fostering maritime cooperation, promoting safe and security maritime environment for regional and global stability and for preserving oceans which is the common heritage of mankind. -Gwadar to be made a modern port city The Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Makhdum Khusro Bakhtyar chaired a meeting to review progress on Gwadar City Master Plan project here on Monday. The meeting was attended by Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Syed Ali Haider Zaidi, Commander Southern Command, Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa, Balochistan Provincial Minister for Information Zahoor Ahmed Buledi, Secretary Planning Zafar Hasan and other officials, said in statement issued by Ministry for Planning, Development and Reform. Director General Gwadar Development Authority, Dr. Sajjad Hussain and Project Director China Pakistan Economic Corridor Hasaan Duad briefed the participants regarding the master plan. It was agreed to develop Gwadar as a modern smart port city, keeping in view the international standards being followed across the globe. -Top Pakistani company announces completion of mega construction project in Iraq Attock Cement on Monday announced it had finished civil, mechanical and electrical work on its Iraq project and the cement grinding unit was at commissioning stage. In a notification sent to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Attock Cement said it was in the process of obtaining permission for the import of clinker. It added once it got the approval, the company would start the process of import of clinker and thereafter commence trial production. -European Union to provide 40 Million Euros for Balochistan Water Conservation Projects European Union and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) have agreed to work in Balochistan in Water Conservation projects. This was told by EU Ambassador to Pakistan Jean-Francois Cautaian and IUCN Country Representative Mahmood Akhtar Cheema who called on Advisor to Prime Minister on Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam. Under the agreement European Union will provide forty million Euros and IUCN will provide technical and human resource assistance.The Advisor briefed the delegation about the Ministry of Climate Change performance in environmental protection and conservation and apprised them the" Recharge Pakistan Project " which aims at raising the under water table by conserving flood water in the right and left bank of Indus River reservoirs, that water could be utilised for domestic as well as horticulture purposes. -Pakistan, Turkey could increase bilateral trade between through FTA Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and Turkey could potentially increase bilateral trade with direct impact in the emerging geo-political scenario, said Secretary General of The Businessmen Panel (BMP-Federal) and former chairman of FPCCI standing committee Ahmad Jawad on Monday. -Punjab government to construct tunnel at Baba Guru Nanak birthplace for Sikh Pilgrims Provincial Minister Human Rights & Minority Affairs Aijaz Alam Augustine Monday said Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had planned the construction of a tunnel from the railway station Nankana Sahib to the birthplace of Baba Guru Nanak to facilitate the Sikh pilgrims. The minister was talking to a delegation of minorities, led by MPA Mahendra Pal Singh, here. He said that after completion of the project, the Sikh pedestrian pilgrims would be able to reach the birthplace of Baba Guru Nanak more comfortably. He said that under the PTI government, equal opportunities were being provided to the minorities in each sector besides protecting them. He said that provision of special funds for upgradation of the minority communities' worship places, upkeep and protection of their graveyards and their residential areas would be ensured. MPA Mahendra Pal Singh acknowledged the efforts made by the PTI government for the Sikh community. -$1 billion export opportunity for Pakistan Chief Executive Officer Pakistan Furniture Council (PFC) Mian Kashif Ashfaq has said Pakistan has great potential to export at least one billion dollars handmade wood furniture annually if the government properly patronizes furniture industry. In a statement, he urged the government to introduce a skill development programme for the export-oriented furniture industry with a view to promoting the country’s value-added sector. He said that a tax exempted furniture sector in Pakistan will enliven the economy in general, create new jobs and increase production level -Bakhtiar calls for investor-friendly regulations in Gwadar Planning, Development and Reform Minister Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar on Monday called for the provision of basic facilities to uplift Gwadar. He was chairing a meeting in the federal capital to review progress made on the Gwadar Master Plan project. The Gwadar Development Authority director general briefed the meeting about the master plan. It was decided that Gwadar would be made a green, clean and environment-friendly city. The minister instructed the authorities to initiate the process of preparing investor-friendly regulations in order to attract maximum investment in the port city. -‘Govt taking all possible measures to facilitate private sector’ President Dr Arif Alvi said on Monday that revival of the economy was among his top priorities, adding that the government was committed to taking all possible measures to facilitate businesses. “The government is committed to developing the private sector through investment promotion, improvement in the ease of doing business, employment generation and fast growth of manufacturing sector,” he stated while talking to Amreli Steels Chairman Abbas Akberali. The president underscored that investment in value-added products, where the country enjoyed a comparative advantage, was vital for economic revival. He said despite all challenges, the incumbent government was striving hard to develop an ecosystem which could attract investment in the country. -FBR resolved 20% of total tax evasion and fraud cases involving billion of rupees in 2018, unearthed tax evasion worth Rs170 billion throughout Pakistan last year Around 20% of the overall tax evasion and fraud cases involving billions of rupees have been resolved by the tax department during 2018. The Director-General Intelligence and Investigation-Inland Revenue department has unearthed tax evasion worth Rs170 billion throughout Pakistan. Moreover, official data regarding these cases shows around 50,000 real estate transactions worth around Rs600 billion at deputy commissioner (DC) rate have been unearthed. However, the market value of these transactions unearthed is possibly going to be higher than the stated amount. Out of these, around 7,500 transactions included people who were not present in tax rolls. Likewise, cases of people not on the tax rolls who purchased vehicles more than Rs10 million were also unearthed. According to an official, the number of these kinds of people numbers in the thousands in Islamabad alone. And all case reports were forwarded to the Federal Board of Revenue’s regional tax offices (RTOs) and large taxpayers’ units (LTUs) for recovery and execution. -Govt to install 0.1m digital meters by Feb-end Federal Minister for Power Omar Ayub Khan has directed electricity distribution companies to immediately undertake GIS (geographic information system) mapping of all 11-kilovolt feeders and replace 100,000 electromagnetic meters with digital meters by the end of February 2019 in order to reduce line losses. The directives were issued in a meeting with chief executive officers of all the power distribution companies at the committee room of the Power Division on Monday. The minister directed the CEOs to personally inspect the power transformers of various capacities on a random basis to ascertain their mechanical fitness. He also called for launching a clean-up operation in the highly populated areas and removing hazardous wires and other such things. -Peshawar airport to commence night-time flight operations after five years After a gap of five years, Bacha Khan International Airport in Peshawar will start night-time flight operations from January 22. The first flight, after the resumption of 24-hour flight operations, will be to Sharjah. Night flight operations were ceased in 2014 after gunmen fired at a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) aircraft while it was landing. One passenger was reported dead in the incident while a member of the cabin crew was injured. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) Chief Minister Mahmood Khan was apprised about the plan and has been requested to appear for the inaugural flight. On January 3, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) installed a state-of-the-art full body scanner at the terminal to check for smuggling and money laundering. -Weekly review: KSE-100 index posts gains for third successive week The stock market had a somewhat decent performance during the outgoing week as the KSE-100 index advanced 258 points or 0.66% to settle at 39,307. It was the third successive weekly rise, indicating that the cloud of uncertainty that hovered over the market was finally vanishing. The renewed interest was seen ahead of the upcoming mini-budget announcement, hinting that the new finance bill may bring good news for the investors. Expectations of a possible reduction or abolition of advance tax of 0.02% on brokers fuelled positive sentiments at the bourse. The positivity was evident on first trading day of the week as the benchmark index rallied, following Finance Minister Asad Umar’s reassurances to the business community during his visit to Karachi at the weekend. Additionally, anticipation of measures to improve ease of doing business and reduction in input cost for the export-oriented sector also helped boost sentiments. -Mazari underscores need for restructuring in Sindh, Punjab police Underscoring the need for restructuring in Sindh and Punjab police, Minister for Human Rights Shireen Mazari on Monday accused Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government of politicizing police. Mazari said that time has come to end the decades of tolerance for killing through encounters. She said that cops involved in Sahiwal shootout should be given exemplary punishment. The minister clarified that Prime Minister Imran Khan had not appreciated the counter terrorism department.
Ah, but maybe you want to look around a bit and see how China’s total debt is compared with other economies, like this? （你可能想看看其他经济体与中国的债务情况相比是怎么样的，如下图）
（G10债务分布图） If you put China’s data on this chart, it will be somewhere around Canada and New Zealand. Guess Which Country Has Debt Of Nearly 1000% Of GDP... Shocking, isn’t it? 如果你将中国的数据插入上图进行比较的话，中国的数据大约会在加拿大和新西兰之间。猜猜看哪个国家债务大约是自己GDP的10倍....（英国）非常震惊吧 UK has almost 1000% Debt-to-GDP ratio, compared with China’s < 300% Debt-to-GDP ratio, mostly because of that over-sized financial debt - at the end of the day, the government must stand behind it. On top of that, the UK has no resource to sell, hardly any industry left, going through a divorce with EU, and almost never ever meets her fiscal targets. And yet, UK, with its near 1000% debt-to-GDP ratio, is still viewed as the gold standard among safe havens. PRESENTING: The Rosetta Stone Of The Entire Sovereign Debt Crisis Why? Because UK issues debt in her own currency. And who prints the pound? The UK government. 英国的债务/GDP占比将近1000%而中国只是小于300%，其原因是其过于庞大的金融债务——政府最终将不得不为之站台。在此之上，英国没用可出售的资源，没有任何本国工业，正在脱离欧盟，而且英国基本上从来没有达成其财务目标。即使如此，英国仍然被某些传媒视为安全经济体的黄金标准。其原因就是英债都以英镑的方式结算。那么是谁印英镑的呢？英国政府。 Then you take a look at Japan, wow that’s 600%+ debt-to-GDP ratio! But - Japan’s debt is not only mostly internal, in Japanese Yen, but also with 0% or even negative interest. You can roll this kind of debt over practically forever. That’s why people have been yelling about Japanese debt for the last 20 years, and nothing happens. 然后你看看日本，将近600%的债务/GDP占比！但是，日本的债务几乎都是内部的，以日元的形式出售的债务，而且日本是0利率甚至是负利率。实际上这种债务你可以无限积累下去(经济常识：如果是负利率，政府只要保持债务不变，多出来的部分会自行消失)。这就是为啥人们对日债担心了20年但屁事没有发生。 Then you take a look at those economies that have blown up on debt: Argentina: Government/Sovereign debt in USD, with jurisdiction in New York!Greece: Government/Sovereign debt in Euro, with jurisdiction in Brussels!Iceland: External financial debt → nationalized into Government/Sovereign debt in USD and Euro alone was 700%+ GDP in 2008, with jurisdiction in New York and Brussels. 然后你看看那些因债务问题毁掉的经济体： 阿根廷：政府/主权债务以美元形式结算，其裁判权在纽约!希腊：政府/主权债务以欧元方式结算，其裁判权在布鲁塞尔！冰岛：外部金融债务→债务国有化后2008年政府/主权债务以美元和欧元的形式达到GDP的700%，其裁判权在纽约和布鲁塞尔 Then you look at China, with her debt almost entirely internal, in Chinese RMB to Chinese citizens, government debt at 55%, lower than the US, Japan, and EU average, in her own currency. China’s external debt is about 9% of GDP, globally ranked 184th (less than North Korea, similar to Kosovo) - anyway you look at it, it’s hardly the kind of material to make a banking crisis. China is borrowing a little bit from her own piggy bank. Argentina/Greece/Iceland were borrowing a lot from the Mafia. 然后你看看中国，中国的债务基本都是内部以人民币结算的。中国政府债务只占总债务的55%，比美国，日本和欧盟都要低，再次强调，其债务以人民币结算。中国外部债务只占GDP的9%，全球排行184位（比朝鲜低，比科索沃高）。无论怎么看，你都不会看到中国有任何银行危机的迹象。中国只是向其国内贪心的银行借钱。阿根廷/希腊/冰岛可是像美国欧盟这些黑手党借钱。 PS: The most significant increase in China’s debt is in the financial sector, driven by rising real estate price (which means higher value of housing loans). Right now, the Chinese government is basically using it as a tool to do macro-economic engineering. The goal is to cap urban growth in top tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) and push the economic growth to second- and third- tier cities (Hangzhou, the city that just hosted G20, is an example.http://www.g20.org/English/Hangzhou/About/index.html Now you can look back and see why the Chinese government decided to host G20 in a city nobody has ever heard of). This is clearly stated by the Chinese government like 100 times since last year in the official news channels. The reason? Top tier Chinese cities like Shanghai (25 million) already have more city residents than the whole nation of Australia! The metropolitan area of Shanghai (44 million) has more people than the entire population of Canada! In one city! Beijing’s population grew by 8 million within the last decade! The place is simply full.List of cities in China by population and built-up area PS: 中国最显著的债务增长是在其金融领域内不断升高的房价造成的（不断增高的房贷造成债务问题）。现在中国政府正在利用房价作为宏观经济调控的工具。其目的是限制一线城市的城市化进程和加速二三线城市的发展（刚刚举办了G20的杭州就是个例子，现在你就能知道为啥中国政府将G20放在一个没人听说过的城市举行了）。这些政策中国政府已经在官媒上宣布了无数次。原因就是一线城市，例如上海（2500万人口），其居民数量比阿根廷全国人口还要多！上海都市圈（4400万人口）的人口数量比加拿大全国还要多！北京人口数量在过去的10年内增长了800万！这些城市的人口数量已经饱和了。 In addition to real estate prices, the Chinese government is also doing stuff like restricting residents permits, disallowing second or third homes, even restricting jobs to local residents, everything to say “this place is full. We have these other nice choices, with lower housing prices. Go there.” Young people complaining about housing prices in tier-one cities? But that’s the whole point. The debt you have to take on to live in tier-one cities SHOULD SCARE YOU OFF. The Chinese government is trying to stop the influx of people pouring into tier-one cities, and get these smart and energetic youths to go build two, three, four, five. … more Shanghai’s in other parts of China. 1.4 billion people can’t all fit into tier-one cities. 除了以房地产为手段，中国政府也加强控制了居住证的发放，禁止第二/三套房买入甚至对本地居民的工作种类进行限制，这些都是为了表达一个意思：这些地方都人满为患了。二三线城市有更低的房价和更好的生活条件，快点去那里吧！年轻人都在抱怨一线城市的高房价？但这就是中国政府想要的。你在一线城市生存需要的代价会把你吓退。中国政府正在尝试控制一线城市的人口流入而让有技术和充满活力的年轻人去建设二三四五线城市——让更多的上海出现在国家的其他地方。14亿人口是没可能全部都聚集在一线城市的。 5.9k Views · View Upvotes Upvote91Downvote Comments4+ Share
There is too much debt, and a lot of it is likely to turn into bad debt, but that does not equal a banking crisis. 是因为中国贷款太多了，而这些贷款大多数会变成不良贷款，但这些都不等银行危机 Banking crisis may be a nice term to bandy around and get clicks and headlines, but does not really explain what is going on. 银行危机或许是一个十分吸引眼球的头条，但是根本就不能解释实际的情况 There was a lot of debt financing, especially after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US. In order to keep the economy on a steady keel, the Chinese government, through its banks, pumped money to Chinese state-owned enterprises, in order to keep high employment and maintain an image of “growth”. A lot of this money then found its way into the underground banking system through “wealth management products” and other means. A lot of this has turned into bad debt. 中国政府有过很多次债务融资，特别是08年美国次贷危机之后。为了稳住经济增长，中国政府通过银行将大量人民币注入到国企内以维持就业率和高增长的形象。但这些钱最终大都以理财产品和其他形式流进了地下钱庄。这些大部分都变成了不良贷款。 Another problem area, which frequently overlaps with the “wealth management products” is the local government financing vehicle used to fund local property development, which I have discussed here: Paul Denlinger's answer to Why does China have so many ghost towns? 另一个有问题的领域，和“理财产品”有莫大关联的，就是地方政府为当地基础建设所采用的金融工具（我在这个地方有详细的分析：https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-have-so-many-ghost-towns/answePaul-Denlinger?srid=tR&share=22b99cfc） What is likely to happen in China is that growth will slow down in some areas, while there will be certain newer parts of the economy which will continue to grow. If the Chinese government is able to support the newer parts of the economy and help them to grow, while cutting back on loans to the weaker parts of the economy, it may be able to handle this transition better. 最可能发生的情况就是中国的经济增长将会放缓，但是肯定会用新的增站点。如果中国政府能支持新的增长点而且能减低夕阳工业的不良贷款率，那么或许能更好地度过过渡期。 This is exactly what the Chinese government is trying to do and you can read about it here:Here is how China is going to quietly save its economy 这些正是中国政府正在尝试去做的，你可以读读这个文章了解一下：http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2022491/china-deploys-policy-banks-stealth-mission-stimulate-growth So, if you are expecting there to be a dramatic run on the banks, and the Chinese people to take to the streets and overthrow the Chinese Communist Party, and become a full-blown democracy like Taiwan, Japan or South Korea, you are very likely to be disappointed. 所以，如果你是期待一次强烈的bank run（自行百度啥是bank run），然后中国人民上街推翻TG，中国大陆变成与台湾，日本韩国一样的政体，那么你要失望了。 4.3k Views · View Upvotes Upvote62Downvote Comments2+ Share
Is China facing a Banking crisis? 中国是在面临一个银行危机吗？ Yes. 对 Is it facing a full blown Banking crisis? 中国正在面临一个全面性的银行危机吗？ No. 错 Combined debt of China is almost 300% of its GDP. But the the categorized in 4 parts as it is shown in the image with the question too. 中国的总债务大概是GDP的300%。但是分在了如图所示的4个领域内。 The corporate debt has the lion's portion of the total debt. The household debt and non corporate debt are nothing to worry about because it is less many other developed countries and has some room to grow. 公司债务在总债务中占了大头。个人债务和非公司债务根本没啥可担心的因为这些比大多数发达国家还要低所以还有增长的空间。 Government Debt is not too big when compared to standards set by many global institutions like IMF, World Bank, etc. 政府债务以多数国际组织，例如世行和IMF，设定得标准来看其实不高。 The only major concern which is of a serious magnitude is the corporate debt. This is also reiterated by many economists. 最主要的关注点就是公司债务了。许多经济学家都重申了这点无数次了。 Now the problem with China is that data that comes out of major Chinese institutions is murky so their are many different types of estimates by many different institutions but the common theme in it is corporate debt and its size. 中国最大的问题就是中国国内组织公布的数据来源不清晰所以不同的国际组织对中国经济的实际情况估算会不一样。但所有组织最关心的都是中国的公司债务与其规模。 Corporate debt consists of debt owned by state owned corporations and private corporations. Private corporations in China are generally crowded out by the state owned corporations because of connections and political agenda. 公司债务又分成了国企和私企的债务。中国私企大多数收到国企排挤，这是有政体造成的。 Many state owned corporations have invested into unproductive projects as a result of excess boost given by government after 2008 to prop up the economy. This has resulted in a huge amount of NPAs. So, in all the major problem is state owned corporations piling up huge amount of debt. To solve this problem, the government tried to convert the debt into shares which the bank owns and can recover money through profit dividends but this was one of the causes for last year's stock market crash. 在08年过度的经济刺激政策下，很多国企在许多无效益项目上投了许多钱。这造成了大量的无效能资产。所以，最大的问题是国企堆积了大量债务。为了解决这个问题，政府正在尝试将国企的债务转化为股份，那么银行就能将债务转化为红利而最终将债务收回了。但这造成了上年的股灾..... Hence, it is a big crisis but not the one government cannot handle with so much trade surplus and forex reserves. But actions are definitely needed to stop it from growing into a bigger problem. 所以，这是一个危机但仍然是政府能控制的，毕竟中国政府有大量贸易顺差和外汇储备。但是仍然需要实际行动来防止事态的扩展。 906 Views · View Upvotes Upvote18Downvote Comments1+ Share
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